The last year or so, i have been obsessssed with quantum. We are taught to think linearly about most things, and that makes quantum difficult to wrap your head around.

In super short it can be explained as this: Something exists as probabilities, spread across multiple possible positions simultaneously. The moment you measure it, it "collapses" into solid. So the granularity of this concept is huge, but and physicist have still not figured out the logic of the quantum, but it seems to be what explains many things that humans have not figured out yet, like the human brain and the universe.

On a more personal level, it transfers to changing the internal state first, then the external will catches up. So if you want to be fit, just resonate as a fit person. Do all the things a fit person would, and sooner or later, external reality will catch up, and you will be fit. It´s a mentally freeing concept because it let´s you believe that things can happen fast once you are aligned.

There is also an angle to look at from an investing perspective.

Quantum investing, (investing in the companies that are focusing on quantum computing) might be a similar opportunity as investing in AI in 2022.

For the logic, the basic premise is the same: classical computers operate on bits (ones and zeros), while quantum computers operate on qubits, which can exist in multiple states simultaneously. That means they can run calculations in parallel at a scale that classical machines physically cannot, solving in minutes what would take a traditional computers years.

Pure-play companies like IonQ, D-Wave, and Rigetti are burning cash, carrying minimal revenue, and trading at valuations that are essentially bets on future dominance rather than present earnings. McKinsey estimates quantum technologies across computing, communications, and sensing could reach $97 billion by 2035.

If AI continues in the direction forecasted, quantum won't just be a disabler, it will be the rewrite. The gap between where we are and where this goes will be difficult to imagine from where we're standing today. Not an advice of course, just a curiosity. It is quite an aggressive category, so make sure you understand your risk-profile well before considering it.

So in the last 5 days the VIX is up almost 19%, meaning people are increasingly shaking in their boots. Why is that?

US–Iran military escalation, is Probably the biggest driver. The situation is more nuanced than "no deal". There actually is a partial deal, but it's fragile and full of unresolved tension, which is exactly why the VIX is elevated.

The US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 15 that extended their ceasefire for 60 days and reopened the Strait of Hormuz.

Why fear crept back in since then: The MOU is essentially a placeholder, not a real deal. Critical issues like Iran's nuclear program, frozen assets, sanctions, were all left unresolved for further negotiations, and it's unclear what happens if no agreement is reached within the 60 days.

Then things get messy, Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced it was closing the Strait of Hormuz again over the weekend, in response to continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Trump threatened on Truth Social to "hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder", while Vance was literally sitting at the negotiating table in Switzerland. And the nuclear question remains a mess.

So the bottom line: markets priced in a deal, then realized the deal is more of a 60-day pause with huge unresolved issues. That gap between initial optimism and the messy reality is what's keeping the VIX elevated now.

On top of that, the markets remain streched as we have talked about many times before. The S&P 500 had just completed a nine-week winning streak, with its RSI deep in overbought territory at 73, leaving it vulnerable to any shock.