I feel like everyone is quite tuned in on the energy consequences of the Iran war, it`s the biggest oil supply shock in history. Prices are up, growth forecasts are being slashed globally. The Strait of Hormuz has essentially gone dark for tanker traffic, the IEA estimates over 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity in the region has already shut down. Diesel and jet fuel are looking particularly nasty, with nowhere obvious to make up the shortfall.

Governments getting serious fast

The International Energy Agency is pushing governments to get serious fast, meaning Remote working, lower speed limits, more public transport, and restrictions on car use in major cities. They're also flagging air travel. In the short term, cutting business flights alone could reduce jet fuel demand by 7–15%. Some countries have even started this transition, Thailand, Vietnam, and Myanmar are implementing driving alternation days and encouraging officials to work from home. China has ordered state-owned companies to suspend fuel exports entirely. Things are moving fast.

Is a COVID-style lockdown coming for Europe? probably not right now. Europe and the US are focused on strategic reserve releases and conservation messaging for the moment, mandatory restrictions are not on the table yet. But experts are clear that this calculus changes the longer Hormuz stays closed. Worth watching.

What about your Euro summer? I would think about locking in flights early this year. When fuel prices stay elevated, airlines historically respond with higher base fares, bigger surcharges, and cutting routes that don't pencil out anymore. So if you would rather spend your money on gelato and aperol than jet fuel surcharges, lock in your flights now.

A female founder story that i love is the one of brasilian Luana Lopez that co-founded Kalshi, a MAJOR prediction market platform, becoming the first self made female billionaire(!) with a B. But the prediction market is bringing some new questions to the table, and might be part of a broader dumbing of society.

So for anyone that might not be familiar with the prediction markets; you just bet on whether something happens or not, and you can make huge amounts of money on that, that`s it. And it can be quite easily rigget, an iconic example is Trevor Noah`s potato phrase on the grammys.

The FT published an interesting piece this week “prediction markets: The hunt for the new dumb money“ and the core thesis maps a familiar arc: a new class of retail participant enters an asymmetric market and becomes the liquidity that smarter money profits from. One thesis is that retail money is moving from crypto to prediction markets, making it all seem very… dumb?

Not just potato insider trading

On a more serious note, just hours before US missiles struck Iran on February 28, six Polymarket accounts placed bets on military action, and walked away with $1.2 million combined. One account has a 821% return, and most of those accounts were created and funded within 24 hours of the strikes.

Insider trading concerns have always existed in Washington on both sides of the aisle, but never before has the administration simultaneously benefited from lax regulation of the very prediction market platforms, both Polymarket and Kalshi count Donald Trump Jr. as an adviser, where the suspicious bets are being placed.

The original pitch was elegant: people with real skin in the game would surface better information than polls or pundits ever could. What nobody fully thought through was the darker corollary.

A group of Democratic lawmakers has now introduced a bill to ban these markets outright.

The scale of it. Americans are expected to wager a record $3.3 billion on March Madness this year, a 54% jump in three years, with another $150 million forecast for prediction markets specifically. Critics are increasingly vocal that the platforms blur the line between investing and gambling in ways that hit retail participants.

Let`s talk about anti-inflammatory foods and eastern medicine. The more i learn about eastern practices in medicine, the more i love it. Taking care of yourself before you get sick, or healing in a natural non-toxic way just feels very aligned with me. So this week, I want to talk about two things I have been experimenting with while recovering from a nasty flu.

I have been drinking golden milk every night and morning the last week. I have been using tumeric, canella, pepper, milk, and honey, and it It feels like a soft and warm hug.

From what i have understood, the hero ingredient is tumeric. It is one of the most well-researched natural anti-inflammatories we know of, together with black pepper because it increases the absorption of the turmeric dramatically. Without it, most of the goodness passes straight through you. Cinnamon brings its own antioxidant and blood sugar regulating properties, and honey adds natural antibacterial compounds while soothing your throat directly.

I have also experimented with raw garlic and honey, and even though that tast sounds overwhelming, it is actually not that bad. The hero compound is allicin, released the second you crush raw garlic. It fights bacteria and viruses, cuts your cold risk by 63%, and shortens illness by 70% if you do catch one. One rule: it has to be raw. Heat kills it completely.

Honey preserves the allicin and adds its own antibacterial kick, together they hit harder than either one alone.